Finding Inter Milan a new Left wingback
Inter Milan have just been crowned champions of Serie A with 4 games left to go after Atalanta failed to beat Sassuolo this weekend. This result confirmed their first Scudetto since José Mourinho did the deed in 2009/10 along with the Coppa Italia and the Champions League. They sit on 82 points, 13 clear Atalanta, with 1 loss either side of the winter break, and boast the joint 2nd best attack and the best defence. They are deserved winners and clearly seem to be the best side in Italy. But there is always room for improvement and even a cursory glance at Inter’s team sheet will tell you that the Left wingback position could be upgraded. Minutes have been shared between Ivan Perišić, Ashley Young and Matteo Darmian, playing 18.1, 13.7 and 10.8 90s respectively. All men are above 30 years old and a younger player could be pursued to provide the consistent threat Achraf Hakimi does on the opposite side.
So long as Conte is manager of Inter Milan, a variation of the 3–5–2 will be used. Looking for somebody to fill a wingback position, we need an athletic player capable of getting up and down the flanks and can contribute in progressing the ball and creating chances. With the extra protection of an additional centre back, the player should be competent defensively but the importance is not as high as it would be if we were looking for a fullback.
To carry out the search, StatsBomb data via fbref.com was used. The player sample was comprised of players who were labelled as “DF”, “DFMF”, “DFFW” and “FWDF” on fbref. They had to have played at least 600 minutes this season and be under the age of 28 years old. This left me with a total sample size of 423 players. 49 variables which I felt best encapsulate the desired variables for a LWB were used and assigned into one of 5 categories: Defensive ability, Passing ability, Running with the ball, Creativity and Attacking ability. This allowed me to determine how players performed in each category and analyse specific strengths and weaknesses.
Comparisons were made using percentiles, meaning I could give overall scores out of 49.
I feel this was a successful process as the players who came out on top were those we would acknowledge as the best fullbacks/wingbacks around.
Looking only at players who feature on the left hand side and are realistically within Inter’s reach, I found 5 who featured in the top 10% of players.
Robin Gosens — 26 years old — Atalanta
A consistent, high-level performer since moving to Serie A 4 seasons ago, Gosens can rightly be regarded as one of the best left wingbacks around. A key cog in Gian Piero Gasperini’s high-flying Atalanta, his main strength lies in his attacking ability. He achieved 17 goal contributions last season with 9 of them being goals and he is currently on 15 this season with 5 games left to go. He excels in every one of the attacking metrics, particularly receiving progressive passes and getting the ball into the penalty area. With a successful box cross % of 19.2% (meaning 19.2% of his entries into the penalty area are crosses), he is able to penetrate dangerous areas in a variety of ways. He creates well for his teams mates and is a strong ball carrier. Defending is not his area of expertise, and his rating is bolstered by activity rather than success. Playing in a high-pressing, high-energy side, it’s no surprise to seem him rank highly for volume of tackles and pressures, especially high up the pitch, but he is a poor tackler and presser. A natural LWB, he could fit into Inter’s lineup seamlessly.
Raphaël Guerreiro — 27 years old — Borussia Dortmund
Guerreiro would rank higher than Gosens if he was even slightly better defensively. Since his standout performances at Euro 2016 and subsequent move to Borussia Dortmund, Raphaël Guerreiro has been a top performer in both the Bundesliga and across Europe wherever he has played. An intelligent player who has played in both central midfield and left back, his move to wing back under Lucien Favre suited him perfectly, allowing him to contribute in attack while hiding his defensive frailties. The chart above speaks for itself. He doesn’t really get involved defensively, completing only 2.29 tackles and interceptions per game and completing only 2.2 successful pressures. He shines going forward, heavily involved in the game with 86 attempted passes per 90, and adding penetration and progression with his passing. Like Gosens, he’s a good carrier but a superior dribbler. In a team brimming with creativity, the Portugese still stands out and has provided the 2nd most assists behind a certain Jadon Sancho. With BVB potentially missing out on Champions League football, Inter may be able to give Guerreiro a chance to play in the competition he belongs in.
Simone Bastoni — 24 years old — Spezia
A lesser known player, Bastoni stands out for being a well rounded, high performing player. His stats read very well, he contributes a goal every other game and is Spezia’s 2nd highest goal creator. He moves the ball forward regularly and isn’t shy of going for goal himself. He has probably been one of his team’s better players this season, ranking highly in creative and progressions statistics. On top of being good going forward, he can actually do the defending part of the job well too. He’s completes 5 tackles and interceptions per 90 and performs well up against dribblers. He presses more and better than the 2 previous players despite playing in a less intense defensive unit. Considering Inter’s financial issues, Simone Bastoni could be a low risk option to improve their left hand side.
Renan Lodi — 23 years old — Atlético Madrid
The youngest player on the shortlist, Lodi is already performing at a level above many of his age mates and is ranked as the 4th best left back realistically available. He has only played 11.8 games worth of minutes due to a couple small injuries and sharing his minutes with Yannick Carrasco, Thomas Lemar and Mario Hermoso. Defending is one of his strongest attributes and may explain why Diego Simeone prefers him at LB or even LCB in a 3 and plays Yannick Carrasco in front of him. He wins half of his tackles, a third of his pressures and is happy to engage high up the field to help his team win the ball closer to the oppositions goal. When it comes to attacking, it’s dribbling and crossing that he specialises in. He puts in 4 crosses a game and completes 2 dribbles a game, placing him in the top 3% and 5% respectively. These help him be a productive force for Atléti, creating over 2 shot creating actions, 7% from dribbles, 1 key pass and a goal creating action every 3 games. Inter are used to getting number in the box for crosses, whether it’s for Romelu Lukaku to cause disruption among opposition centre backs, Hakimi coming in at the back post or Barella or Eriksen arriving late. Lodi would definitely be a useful addition to Inter, although he may have one of the more prohibitive prices.
Maxwel Cornet — 24 years old — Lyon
The last player to look at is former winger, Maxwel Cornet. As a former winger, it should come as no surprise that it his attacking ability that separates him from many others. Compared to the other’s mentioned above, he is less influential in terms of expected goal contributions, shot creating actions and key passes. A smaller proportion of his total touches come in the middle and attacking 3rds and he moves the ball into the final third and penalty area less frequently than all apart from Lodi. By way of explanation, this may be due to him focussing more on improving the defensive aspect of his game, which he has done so to a good standard for someone who only moved back a couple seasons ago. With 3.15 tackles per 90 at 57.5% win rate, he’s actually among the better tacklers on the shortlist. Furthermore, despite being under 6ft, he contests 2.88 aerial duels, winning almost 60% of them. As previously mentioned, having someone competent aerially for a team who cross as much as Inter do (13.4 per 90) is beneficial. Young, versatile, a natural attacker with the dedication to learn a new role for the benefit of the team, Cornet would be a good value for money signing.
Now, we’ll just take a look at a few scatterplots showcasing their per 90 stats compared to the rest of the sample.
We can see that most of the options are average or above average when it comes to tackles and interceptions. Guerreiro is not an active defender, with just over 2 regains per game and very few pressures. As one might expect, the wingbacks, Gosens and Guerreiro, make far more of their tackles and pressures in the final third than the others. Looking at the defensive activity in the final third is an important consideration as a winning the ball back high up the pitch is a key part of Inter’s game plan. They rank inside the top 5 for both tackles and pressures in the attacking third. This may be something a new signing will have to adjust to, being brave enough to commit themselves further up the pitch.
The following scatterplots display how they perform going the other way.
Again, the wingbacks stand out here. Lodi, despite featuring in more conservative roles, is still involved high up the field, although he does not bear much creative or attacking responsibility, taking 0.99 shots, contributing 0.13 npxG +xA and making 2.29 shot creating actions per 90. Simone Bastoni is another interesting player here, as despite only 24.7 touches in the attacking 3rd and 1.97 touches in the penalty area, he takes the 3rd most number of shots and makes the same number of SCAs per game as Gosens.
Finally, a look at getting the ball into the final third and the penalty area. Guerreiro is the best player in the entire sample and moving the ball into the final third 10 times a game, 2.5 times more than Achraf Hakimi does for Inter. This isn’t necessarily a knock on Hakimi, rather Conte has his wingbacks stationed high up the pitch, facilitated by a back 4 comprised of the 3 CBs and Marcelo Brozović. Bastoni is also very impressive here, completing over 50% more deep progressions than average. Gosens and Cornet are both above average while Lodi is in the 50th percentile. Again, the BVB man moves the ball into the penalty area 3.79 more than our other players, and more than the aforementioned Hakimi (3.59). Using the final beeswarm plot, we can get a stylistic idea of a player and how they try to get the ball into the penalty area. None of our players are cross heavy in the way we might consider someone like Filip Kostić or Alexander-Arnold are. Cornet tops our list in terms of crosses and SBC% (2.5 and 23.76% respectively). Bastoni is the second most frequent crosser with 2.7 per 90 but uses this method to enter the box 15.6% of the time. This is interesting as dspite being a relatively high volume crosser (top 20%), he is able to get into the area in a variety of ways.
The last thing I want to do is compare these players to those already at the club. To do so, a heatmap was created in Tableau with the variables of interest chosen according to fbref’s important variables for fullbacks.
The good thing about heatmaps is that they are a comparison tool as a quick glance informs us who the better performers are. First and foremost, we can tell who the stand outs are, Robin Gosens but more so Raphaël Guerreiro. Outstanding going forward, arguably he represents the best option in terms of quality Inter could go for. Gosens is a close second, with the German a better all round option in terms of not being a liability when defending. He might not be the best in any of the metrics but he performs them to a high level. Simone Bastoni, like Gosens albeit to a lesser extent, is a good all round option. Fbref actually has Gosens as a similar player along with Theo Hernandez, positive signs if Gosens value exceeds what the Nerazzurri are willing to pay. There is less to call between Lodi, Cornet and Perišić but it should be clear to see that upgrades on Young and Darmian are necessary and can come at low prices if the scouting department look well enough.
Thanks all for reading.
